Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations for the Assessment of Impacts on Precipitation, Flow Rate and Electricity Generation in the Xingu River Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

This study applied regionalization techniques on future climate change scenarios for the precipitation over Xingu River Basin (XRB) considering 2021–2080 horizon, in order to assess impacts monthly flow rates and possible consequences electricity generation at Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (BMHPP). is fourth largest hydroelectric power plant world, with a generating capacity of 11,233 MW, located Brazilian Amazon. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5) an ensemble comprising four general circulation models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR NORESM1-M) were used. The projections based both indicated considerable decrease during rainy season slight increase dry relative reference period (1981–2010). According results, reduction Altamira overall potential BMHPP are also be expected analyzed periods (2021–2050 2051–2180). scenario resulted milder decreases those variables than 8.5. Conforming our findings, 21.3% annual until 2080, corresponding use 38.8% maximum facility. These results highlight need investments other renewable energy sources (e.g., wind solar) compensate upcoming losses production.